5 Biggest Talking Points Going into Formula 1's Summer Break

Oliver Harden@@OllieHardenX.com LogoFeatured ColumnistAugust 5, 2015

5 Biggest Talking Points Going into Formula 1's Summer Break

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    Formula One has gone on its summer holidays at just the wrong time.

    After nine races of misery both on and off track, the 2015 season finally burst into life at the Hungarian Grand Prix, which produced a surprise winner and shock results throughout the field, with the two title protagonists failing to reach the podium for the first time this year.

    In an ideal world, F1 would have capitalised on the excitement generated by that race by offering another dose of exhilaration the following weekend, yet the sport's annual midseason break means there is a month-long delay until the next round in Belgium on August 23.

    The interval, though, has given us much to ponder ahead of the final nine races, with drivers fighting for the championship and their futures and teams tussling for positions in the all-important constructors' championship.

    Here are five of the biggest talking points as the paddock heads for the beach.

Can Nico Rosberg Do Anything to Stop Lewis Hamilton Taking a 3rd Title?

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    At the halfway point of last season, Nico Rosberg had an 11-point advantage over Lewis Hamilton at the top of the drivers' standings.

    This year? Hamilton has a lead of 21 points over his team-mate after the opening 10 races.

    The points difference between the Mercedes drivers may seem irrelevant at this stage of the season, when one retirement, one off day or one misjudged overtaking manoeuvre can instantly turn the leader into the chaser.

    Yet when you consider that many of the tracks that make up the second half of 2015 are suited to Hamilton—from the street circuit in Singapore to the season-ending race in Abu Dhabi—you realise that Rosberg has left himself with much to do across the final nine races.

    The German's performances this year have, for the most part, been bewildering, those of a driver running out of ideas and, most worryingly, no longer with an identity.

    In trying to match Hamilton at his own game—Rosberg spoke of improving his racecraft skills at the end of last season, per Sky Sports' Pete Gill and James Galloway—he has lost the qualities that made him such a formidable opponent in 2014.

    His aggressive defensiveness was most evident in Hungary. Despite being in contention for the win, Rosberg, in a bid to contain Hamilton, adopted an unadventurous tyre strategy and paid for his conservatism with a puncture, losing more ground to his team-mate when he should have taken the championship lead.

    While he remains very much in contention for the title—Hamilton's horrendous display at the Hungaroring, just 24 hours after claiming a convincing pole position, was a reminder of how quickly things can change—Rosberg needs a clear, balanced approach from the Belgian Grand Prix.

    But the damage, you suspect, has already been done.

Will Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel Take the Fight to Mercedes?

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    With Sebastian Vettel's win in the Hungarian Grand Prix, Ferrari achieved their pre-season goal of two race wins for 2015.

    But that doesn't necessarily mean the Prancing Horse will now switch their focus to next season.

    After the Budapest race, his second victory for Ferrari, Vettel claimed he wasn't yet ready to give up on his dream of winning the title in his first season with Formula One's most sacred team, telling Autosport's Ian Parkes:

    We know we have to remain realistic, that there is still a lot of work to do and a lot of catching up to do. 

    You never know. I'm sure we will try absolutely everything, and try to make the impossible possible.

    The best way of doing that is to remain calm, to try to do your best, and then we will see where the journey takes us.

    It was exactly the same attitude Vettel adopted in his maiden title-winning campaign with Red Bull Racing in 2010, which saw the German, an outsider, win three of the final four races to snatch the championship from under the noses of Fernando Alonso and Mark Webber.

    Despite closing the gap to Lewis Hamilton in Hungary, Vettel remains 42 points adrift of the two-time world champion with nine races remaining.

    And while Mercedes, as we've seen several times since the beginning of 2014, are prone to cracking under pressure, overhauling Hamilton's advantage will be a difficult task for Ferrari, who are still in the process of recapturing the winning feeling.

    So will Ferrari be blinded by the prospect of instant success and increase their efforts to win the title as early as this year? Or, as we wondered after Hungary, will they be patient and focus on beating Mercedes in a straight fight in 2016?

Will Kimi Raikkonen and Jenson Button Hang On?

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    Last season's transfer market was dominated by two world champions as Sebastian Vettel joined Ferrari to replace Fernando Alonso, who moved to McLaren-Honda.

    And it seems the 2015 edition of "silly season" will also be a tale of two title winners as 2007 world champion Kimi Raikkonen and 2009 victor Jenson Button fight for their Formula One futures.

    Raikkonen has recovered relatively well from his worst-ever season in the sport in 2014, securing his first podium finish since 2013 in April's Bahrain GP, yet that may not be good enough for a resurgent Ferrari team with genuine title-winning aspirations.

    The queue for the Finn's seat is long and winding, with Valtteri Bottas, Nico Hulkenberg and Daniel Ricciardo in contention for a place alongside Vettel in 2016.

    Indeed, a recent report by Corriere dello Sport (h/t Sky Sports) suggested Ferrari had already agreed a deal to sign Bottas from Williams, which would bring an end to Raikkonen's F1 career.

    Button, meanwhile, has continued the form he showed in the final months of 2014 into this season, driving beautifully in difficult circumstances at McLaren-Honda.

    Regrettably, however, the uncertainty that hung over the British driver 12 months ago has also remained, and this time the 35-year-old could be engulfed by the sands of time.

    With McLaren's latest starlet, Stoffel Vandoorne, dominating GP2, it would almost be a disservice to F1 if the team didn't find a place on the grid for the Belgian, potentially leaving Button, through no fault of his own, without a drive.

    It would be a shame if two of the most popular drivers in F1, according to a Grand Prix Drivers' Association survey, were to depart the sport at the end of the season, but Raikkonen and Button are most at risk in this year's game of musical chairs. 

What Can Red Bull and McLaren-Honda Salvage from This Season?

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    For one weekend only, Red Bull Racing and McLaren-Honda were allowed to forget their problems in the Hungarian Grand Prix.

    On a circuit with high-downforce requirements, which minimised the effect of their lack of engine power, both teams enjoyed their most competitive race of the season and duly secured their best results.

    While Daniil Kvyat and Daniel Ricciardo both managed to the podium despite having eventful afternoons, Fernando Alonso was immune to the madness around him and crossed the line in fifth, only his second top-10 finish of the season.

    The upturn in results for both teams at the Hungaroring was, of course, circumstantial, yet there is little doubt that Red Bull, having adjusted to a new "aerodynamic philosophy" (as noted by Sky Sports' Mark Hughes), and McLaren have made steps forward in terms of competitiveness.

    But where will both teams stand in the pecking order when F1 returns to low-downforce venues and their weaknesses are exposed once more?

    Can Red Bull, forced to wait 10 races for a top-three finish, now become regular podium contenders? Can McLaren finally reach Q3 and stay there, putting themselves in a stronger position to regularly add to their points tally?

    The progress McLaren and Red Bull make in the second half of the season is, in many ways, far more important than their championship positions. They need to show promising signs ahead of what will be a crucial 2016 campaign for both teams.

Who Will Claim 5th in the Constructors' Championship?

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    The top five positions in the constructors' championship are usually filled by the same old names, with Mercedes, Ferrari, Williams, Red Bull and McLaren forming an exclusive club.

    McLaren's struggles in the first half of 2015, however, has created a vacancy, which could be claimed by any number of teams.

    After the opening 10 races, just eight points separate fifth-placed Force India and seventh-placed Scuderia Toro Rosso, both of whom could claim their best-ever championship finishes in 2015.

    Lotus, meanwhile, lie directly in the middle of that battle, and despite failing to make the most of their Mercedes-powered E23 car thus far, the Enstone-based outfit could still return to the top five after recording consecutive fourth-placed finishes in 2012 and '13.

    A dark horse in the midfield race, perhaps, are Sauber, who have scored just three points in the last seven races yet remain just 17 points adrift of fifth. But with major upgrades due to both the chassis and the Ferrari power unit, Felipe Nasr and Marcus Ericsson may end the year as promisingly as they started it.

    In an era when the smaller teams are at risk of extinction, one of the midfield outfits could be in line for a significant financial boost should they break into Formula One's elite.

    And what of ninth-placed McLaren, who—discounting their exclusion from the 2007 championship—haven't finished lower than fifth since 1981 and, for all their difficulties with the new Honda engine, are just 22 points behind Force India?

    They couldn't. Could they?

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